Current Weather Forecast and Discussion: Updated 9.23.2011 12:45 PM
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Forecast Discussion:
A nearly stationary frontal boundary will continue the chances for rainfall across the Sandhills region of North Carolina today. Current radar trends show the next widespread area of rainfall slowly advancing eastward and northward from the Piedmont and into our area. This rainfall has already prompted numerous flash flood warnings and that will likely continue through today. The main threat will be small stream and urban flooding where the heaviest rain occurs. Ahead of the aforementioned front there is ample moisture transport from the Gulf and Atlantic which has advected precipitable water values at or above 2 inches into the region. This is the primary reason heavy rainfall is a concern in conjunction with available lifting mechanisms.
Farther east of the main area of rainfall towards US-1 and I-95 a bit more instability may become available for scattered thunderstorms to develop. Any one of these cells would have to be watched closely for rotation. There is ample shear, especially to the northeast (30-50 knots) and helicity values are >200 m^2/s^2 in much of the region. My main area of concern for this afternoon and evening would be from Fayetteville northeast outside of our region to Rocky Mount and points east of I-95. This is where the higher helicity values are combining with the greatest instability. The main mode of concern for any thunderstorms would be mini supercells which could produce isolated tornadoes.
It appears tonight the main rain shield will push east of US-1 tonight but showers will still be possible through Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised to see patchy fog as well during the night time hours. During Saturday itself the front will finally be crossing the Sandhills region and this will continue the chance for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday afternoon and evening (especially east). On sunday a new wave of low pressure could develope along the front continuing a chance for showers then as well, especially along and east of I-95. There is still uncertainty as to this exact setup at that time so stay tuned. Hopefully we can salvage the last part of the weekend to some degree.
Forecast (As of 12:45pm Fri):
Today: Rain likely with thunderstorms also possible. Some storms may produce isolated tornadoes along and east of I-95. Heavy rain may result in some urban and small stream flooding. Highs 75-80..
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms likely, especially east. Patchy fog with lows 67-71.
Saturday: Showers and thunderstorms likely with highs in the low 80's.
Sunday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, especially east. Otherwise a mix of sun and clouds. Highs in the low 80's.
Monday: A mix of sun and clouds with highs in the low 80's.
Coverage Area:
SandhillsWx.com covers the Sandhills region of North Carolina and to a lesser extent the immediate surrounding counties when relevant. Below are maps of the coverage area detail:
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